How will Brexit affect the property market in Northern Ireland?
Campbell & Co in Belfast & Lisburn
19th November 2019
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Undoubtedly the most frequently asked question in recent times by those with an interest in property.
There are many opinions on the many possible scenarios as the UK seeks to leave the EU.
Currently the property sales market is quite static with many agents indicating low levels of housing stock and reduced numbers of properties coming to the market for sale.
If there is a no deal Brexit and the UK crash out of the EU, then it is predicted there could be significant job losses across the UK and this would in all likelihood affect Northern Ireland.
With job losses comes uncertainty and this would most likely have an impact on house sales. In this scenario there would be a reduction in market confidence which would impact on property sales.
Campbell & Co have spoken with other Estate Agents in Belfast & Estate Agents in Lisburn to get their opinion on the impact on the local property market of a no deal Brexit. The general consensus is that a no deal Brexit would have an impact on general economic confidence, which in turn will affect spending patterns. This will inevitably have an adverse effect on the property market in terms of lower sale transactions.
In the event of a smooth exit from the EU, I believe this could have a positive effect on the local housing market. There is plenty of evidence that many people are holding off making property decisions until the Brexit outcome is clear. This includes those looking to sell their homes, first time buyers and those thinking of investing in property.
This is down to the current uncertainty people feel regarding the impact of Brexit. Once this uncertainty is removed and Brexit is behind us, we would expect an increase in overall activity within the housing market, assuming a smooth exit. Increased volumes of property coming to the market will lead to a higher number of sales transactions. Those currently holding off on plans to buy or sell because of Brexit uncertainty, would have no reason hold off in this scenario.
Campbell & Co have a strong presence as Letting Agents in Belfast and Lisburn and we provide property management services for hundreds of clients, some of whom are based overseas.
We have taken enquiries from clients asking if we believe there will be a negative impact on the property rental market as a result of Brexit. We do not think there this will be the case, in fact, quite the opposite.
In a no deal scenario we would expect an increase in rental demand for a variety of reasons. Some will choose to rent and hold off on buying their first home. There may be others who are forced into renting property as a result of changes in their employment status.
I believe the Belfast and Lisburn rental market would also benefit in the case of a smooth exit from the EU. If the uncertainty of Brexit is removed, it would lead to more consumer confidence and we would expect to see more activity from Property Investors buying up more properties. This would not only aid the property sales market in terms in increased transactions but would also generate much needed rental accommodation to meet the ever-increasing rental demand.
As property specialists in Belfast and Lisburn, we at Campbell & Co are confident that having Brexit behind us will be a positive for the property market in Northern Ireland and we look forward to that day coming soon.